Editor’s Note: The following offers excerpts of the latest report by LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose, as of Friday, Jan. 3.
Cold is coming, but this will not be the magnitude of cold we saw in February 2021. However, it will be cold enough such that everyone should still make the typical cold weather/freezing temperature preparations.
Key Weather Messages:
• A strong cold front will blast through the area Sunday, bringing a prolonged period of very cold temperatures
• The coldest air so far this season is expected through mid week, with overnight lows in the 20s predicted for Monday through Thursday mornings
• There is a low probability for some wintery precipitation across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday into Thursday … Weather Discussion Changes in the weather will begin to take place Sunday when a strong cold front will push south out of North Texas (this past) Sunday afternoon. Forecasts call for the cold front to reach the Austin area sometime around midday into the early afternoon, moving off the middle Texas coast around sunset.
In advance of cold front, readings are forecast to be in the 60s, with mid to upper 70s towards the coast. No rain is forecast along the front when it moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. However, an area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop when the front reaches the area south of Interstate 10. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong in nature.
Windy and much cooler weather (was expected to) develop behind the cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures look to fall into the 50s Sunday afternoon and into the 40s and 30s Sunday evening and Sunday night. Wind chill temperatures are predicted to be in the 20s Sunday night. Expect(ed) northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The sky (was) forecast to be clear Sunday night. A freeze (was) forecast across all of the region by early Monday morning.
• Lows Monday morning (were) forecast to be in the mid-20s across the Hill Country, near 28-30 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low 30s across the coastal plains.
Cold temperatures are forecast to be in place for most of (this) week as a cold northerly flow continues behind the initial cold front.
Midweek Forecast
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast late Thursday into Friday as a weak southerly flow returns off the Gulf. A mostly sunny sky is forecast Monday and Tuesday, followed by a mostly cloudy to overcast sky Wednesday and Thursday.
• Lows Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings will range from the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, to the upper 20s across Central Texas, to the upper 20s to 30 degrees across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s
• High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be near 40-42 degrees
• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the mid-40s
• Lows Friday morning will range from the upper 20s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-30s at most other locations Cold Weather Preparations
Weather winterization precautions:
• Protect sensitive vegetation
• Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained)
• Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock Wintery Precipitation Potential Long-range ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to suggest an impressive low pressure trough will dip south toward Baja California early Wednesday that will begin to pull clouds and moisture up and over the cold air mass at the surface.
This may result in a pattern of overrunning clouds and possible wintery precipitation across the Hill Country and Central Texas sometime late Wednesday, continuing into Thursday.
There is considerable variability amongst the most recent suite of forecast solutions in the timing, strength, and position of the upper trough, and this will have a huge impact on the potential for wintery precipitation across the area.
The latest model ensemble solutions are showing a slightly higher potential for some light snow across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas regions sometime late Wednesday into Thursday.
However, there are still quite a number of model solutions that point to no precipitation next week, keeping the upper low too far out to our west.
Because of the complexities in the various model solutions, I currently have very low confidence in the forecast for
any wintery precipitation late next week.
