I urge everyone to take the necessary precautions now to protect people, pets, pipes, and plants from the arctic outbreak this week.
The chance for wintery precipitation late Tuesday into early Wednesday has diminished as the precipitation is forecast to end before temperatures fall below freezing.
A second and even colder blast of arctic air will arrive Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, accompanied by much colder temperatures and gusty winds that will continue into Thursday.
The coldest point of the week will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
This Week
Attention turns to Tuesday when the second and coldest surge of arctic air is predicted to push south across the area. Forecasts call for the arctic front to reach the northern Hill Country late Tuesday afternoon, the Austin/Central Texas area early Tuesday evening, and the middle Texas coast an hour or two before midnight.
Ahead of the front, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers – mainly for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Tuesday afternoon. An area of light rain showers is also forecast to develop along and just behind the cold front.
However, updated forecasts call for the precipitation to end from west to east before the temperature falls below freezing. As a result, winterly precipitation now appears unlikely Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The sky is forecast to clear late Tuesday night and be mostly sunny for Wednesday and Thursday.
Significantly colder temperatures and gusty northerly winds will develop behind the cold front Tuesday night. In fact, this arctic airmass is expected to bring some of the coldest temperatures our region has seen so far this season. Northerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph are forecast to develop Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. The coldest night of the week is still expected to be Wednesday night, when wind speeds decrease.
Lows temperatures Wednesday morning are predicted to be near 20 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-30s across the coastal plains.
High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the mid-40s across the coastal plains.
Low temperatures Thursday morning are forecast to be between 15 and 20 degrees across the Hill Country, between 20 and 22 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid to upper 20s coastal region.
High temperatures Thursday will be in the low and mid-40s.
Low temperatures Friday morning are forecast to be in the low 20s Hill Country, the mid-20s Central Texas, and the low to mid-30s coastal region.
Forecasters are closely monitoring weather developments for next Friday and Saturday when a trough of low pressure moving across the southern Plains is expected to pull moisture north into South and Central Texas, resulting in the development of some light precipitation. With the temperature forecast to fall into the low 30s late Friday night into early Saturday morning, a light wintery mix cannot be ruled out—mainly across the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region.
There is much uncertainty with this part of the forecast until the timing and temperature forecast can be fine tuned. The threat for wintery precipitation will end by Saturday afternoon as the temperature warms into the 50s.
Bob Rose is the chief meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority.
