Flash Flood Watch Issued for all of South Central Texas on Thursday (1 AM until 10 PM)

Area of Concern:

All of South Central Texas for flash flooding and subsequent river flooding, with a slight risk for severe storms and isolated tornadoes primarily in the Coastal Plains. See attached graphics.

Threats & Impacts:

Tornadoes:  A few tornadoes in the Coastal Plains possible, low risk elsewhere

Winds:  Up to 60 mph

Hail:  Most up to quarter size, with isolated reports up to golf ball size

Rainfall:  Widespread 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts above 3 inches

Timing and Overview:

Another upper level disturbance approaching from the west will produce widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals across South Central Texas. Saturated soils and relatively high rivers, streams, and reservoirs due to heavy rainfall over the past five days will cause most of this rain to runoff into area creeks, streams, and low lying areas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms that develop west of the region are expected to move into the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau after Midnight before progressing east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor tomorrow morning and Coastal Plains late tomorrow morning. Storms should clear the area from west to east ending by late tomorrow evening in the Coastal Plains to end the flash flood threat.

Although the primary threat will be flash flooding and subsequent river flooding, severe storms capable of producing a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will be possible for areas located along and south of a frontal boundary. This front is currently expected to move into the Coastal Plains where the threat for severe storms is greatest, but is expected to remain southeast of the I-35 corridor and areas northwest of that where the threat is marginal. Shifts in the location of this front may cause this severe threat to increase or decrease further in area tomorrow.

Confidence:

Rainfall Amounts: Moderate to High

Flash Flooding Impacts: Moderate

Severe Weather Impacts: Low 

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